Current
Algorithms to live by
Optimal stopping problem. Aka the secretary problem. Time to a search if unbounded. If number of candidates is fixed. If no incomplete information, observation only, then 37% is optimal. If...
Oxford Guide to effective argument
Thinking critically is judging strength or weakness. Questions vs noun phrases, generally stating association between two objects. Look out for the explicitness of a claim. Reasons give grounds for accepting...
Finished
Mastering the Market Cycle
Risk is unknowable future, for gains and losses. An edge is an information edge, tendencies (likely to happen) need to take into account factors. Hard to know how far back,...
Superforecasting
Forecasters are just Chips throwing darts at a dartboard, little better than guessing. Butterfly effect, LaPlasses Deamon, lorenzes cloud. We live in a world of predictability and unpredictability. Prediction accuracy...
Deep work
Shifts into easier more logistic work. Network tools move things from deep to shallow Average is over, technology segments and remote work will raise up stars and also allow for...
Scaling Up Excellence
Scaling up Excellence Life is messy Scaling depends on people Focus on you first Focus on the ground battles not the air battle. Grit drives people to succeed. Spread...
Good strategy / bad strategy
What is Strategy Strategy is identifying the few challenges or opportunities and alining resources towards them. Example: General Petraeus and identifying in Iraq to support the populist, turn them...
Thinking In Bets
Life is two things, quality decisions and luck. Resulting bias: Weighting quality of decision to the outcome, ie. sane football call is criticized based on outcome. Related to hindsight bias....
The Book of Why
No mathematical equations for Cause and Effect. Statistics pushed this aside, correlation is not causation. Path Analysis starts to help here. So does Casual Diagrams. Data is dumb. Doesn’t tell...
Designing Data Intensive Applications
Most applications built from general purpose data stores, essentially end up building APIs that behave like bespoke data stores on top of them (cache, message queue, etc) service’s interface...
On Writing well
The transaction No right way, but all need to commit you write, find the real man behind the angst of writing. Good writing is alive, has humanity and warmth....
The Coaching Habit
Large survey said that only 23% of people say coaching was valuable. Coaching is simple, daily informal act. #1 Creating over depdenence - creates bottleneck.#2 Getting overwhelmed. #3 Becoming disconnected....
Selections from Science and Sanity
We are organisms that abstract, meaning is context driven and terms are multi-ordinal. Language allows for passing down culture and knowledge and therefore ‘time binding’, it is a function of...
Payoff hidden logic that shapes our motivations
Long list of incentives, what does your motivation equation look like? Motivation includes elements not related to joy, it often drives us to achievements that are difficult, painful, challenging. Motivations...
Ray Dalio Principles
“Not knowing taught me more than knowing” Do we have common principles? Are we clear about them? Do we write them down? People can bootstrap their principles from Parents, Religion,...
Sapiens
We are the underdogs, many other predators have had millions of years of improvement, majestic. Hard to have both intestines and brains as they take lots of energy, fire help...
Munger The Complete Investor
Learning from the success and failure of others is the fastest way to get smarter and wiser without a lot of pain. Part of the benefit of creating a checklist...
Radical Candor
GSD, listen to ideas, listen to each other, clarify, debate, decide, persuade, learn from results. Listen Quiet listen, vs strong listening - make a case and make sure to...
Competing against luck
Data helps with product correlation, but doesn’t tell you why the customers make the purchase decisions they do. Need a thesis, look for “help wanted” to generate causality of purchase...