Current
Mastering the Market Cycle
Risk is unknowable future, for gains and losses.
Book: Oxford Guide to effective argument
Thinking critically is judging strength or weakness.
Finished
Superforecasting
Forecasters are just Chips throwing darts at a dartboard, little better than guessing.
Book: Scaling Up Excellence
Scaling up Excellence
Book: Good strategy / bad strategy
What is Strategy Strategy is identifying the few challenges or opportunities and alining resources towards them. Example: General Petraeus and identifying in Iraq to support the populist, turn them against the insurgents.
12 Rules for life
Abandoned too preachy and don’t agree with many statements.
Thinking In Bets
Life is two things, quality decisions and luck. Resulting bias: Weighting quality of decision to the outcome, ie. sane football call is criticized based on outcome. Related to hindsight bias.
The Book of Why
No mathematical equations for Cause and Effect. Statistics pushed this aside, correlation is not causation. Path Analysis starts to help here. So does Casual Diagrams.
Designing Data Intensive Applications
Most applications built from general purpose data stores, essentially end up building APIs that behave like bespoke data stores on top of them (cache, message queue, etc)
On Writing well
The transaction No right way, but all need to commit you write, find the real man behind the angst of writing. Good writing is alive, has humanity and warmth.
The Coaching Habit
Large survey said that only 23% of people say coaching was valuable.
Selections from Science and Sanity
We are organisms that abstract, meaning is context driven and terms are multi-ordinal. Language allows for passing down culture and knowledge and therefore ‘time binding’, it is a function of the brain, as in derived from language. Limitations of language...
Payoff hidden logic that shapes our motivations
Long list of incentives, what does your motivation equation look like?
Ray Dalio Principles
“Not knowing taught me more than knowing”
Sapiens
We are the underdogs, many other predators have had millions of years of improvement, majestic.
Munger The Complete Investor
Learning from the success and failure of others is the fastest way to get smarter and wiser without a lot of pain.
Radical Candor
GSD, listen to ideas, listen to each other, clarify, debate, decide, persuade, learn from results.
Competing against luck
Data helps with product correlation, but doesn’t tell you why the customers make the purchase decisions they do. Need a thesis, look for “help wanted” to generate causality of purchase decision.