A collection of 20 posts

Antifragile
Fragility can be measured; risk is not measurable. Anything that has more upside than downside from random events (or certain shocks) is antifragile; the reverse is
Algorithms to live by
Optimal stopping problem. Aka the secretary problem. Time to a search if unbounded. If number of candidates is fixed. If no incomplete information, observation only, then
Mastering the Market Cycle
Risk is unknowable future, for gains and losses. An edge is an information edge, tendencies (likely to happen) need to take into account factors. Hard to
Superforecasting
Forecasters are just Chips throwing darts at a dartboard, little better than guessing. Butterfly effect, LaPlasses Deamon, lorenzes cloud. We live in a world of predictability
Deep work
Shifts into easier more logistic work. Network tools move things from deep to shallow Average is over, technology segments and remote work will raise up stars
Oxford Guide to effective argument
Thinking critically is judging strength or weakness. Questions vs noun phrases, generally stating association between two objects. Look out for the explicitness of a claim. Reasons
Scaling Up Excellence
Scaling up Excellence Life is messy Scaling depends on people Focus on you first Focus on the ground battles not the air battle. Grit drives people
Good strategy / bad strategy
What is Strategy Strategy is identifying the few challenges or opportunities and alining resources towards them. Example: General Petraeus and identifying in Iraq to support the